The Gold Lens · Topic
Real Yields
6 analyses on how Real Yields is shaping the gold market.
Who Sold Gold in September?
Gold fell 8.5% in September. In the same month, funds holding physical gold took in $10 billion and China’s central bank made its largest purchase in three years. Ownership rose while the price fell. The selling came from the futures market, and that tells you what kind of fall this was.
12 October 2026 · 8 min read
The Fed Is Hiking Again. Gold Has Been Here Before.
The Fed has raised rates for the first time since 2023, and most of its officials expect to do it again this year. The textbook says that is bad for gold. The record of the last three hiking cycles is more useful: gold finished all three higher, and the hikes were never the part that mattered.
12 October 2026 · 10 min read
The Fed Has Stopped Giving Directions
Since June the Fed’s statements have carried no forward guidance, and at Jackson Hole Kevin Warsh made the case for keeping it that way. With a hike priced as likely this week, a Fed committed to ‘a discipline, not a decision’ faces its biggest call yet — and gold faces a louder data calendar.
15 September 2026 · 9 min read
The Pipeline Around Hormuz Closed. Gold Fell Again.
Drones launched from Iraq shut the Saudi pipeline that carried crude around a near-closed Strait of Hormuz. Brent neared $110, US inflation ran hotter, and for the second time this summer gold fell into a Gulf crisis instead of rising with it — for the same reason as in July.
15 September 2026 · 7 min read
A War Broke Out in the Gulf. Gold Fell.
The US and Iran are trading strikes across the Strait of Hormuz, oil has jumped ~10% in a week, and gold — the world's oldest crisis asset — just posted its worst week in three months. The paradox has a mechanism, and it runs through the Fed.
17 July 2026 · 7 min read
Real Yields Are Rising. Why Isn't Gold Falling?
The traditional inverse correlation between real yields and gold has broken down since 2022. Three structural factors explain why — and what it means for the road ahead.
17 March 2026 · 5 min readBrowse Other Topics